The 2025 Kentucky Derby Odds and Breakdown
As the 2025 Kentucky Derby approaches, anticipation and excitement build around the annual “Run for the Roses,” a tradition that has seen countless triumphs and heart-stopping upsets. The thrill of the Kentucky Derby captivates the ardent racing enthusiast as well as the casual fan. Understanding the horses, their odds, and unique challenges can help bettors place more informed wagers.
For those looking to delve deeper into this year’s contenders, each horse in the race brings its own narrative of strengths and vulnerabilities. From the promising speed of Neoequos to the consistent performances of Citizen Bull, the strategic unpredictability of Final Gambit, and the awe of Journalism, each horse adds a layer of intrigue to the betting landscape. Knowing why a favorite might falter or an underdog might shine is essential for those aiming to win big.
Whether a seasoned racing aficionado or a curious novice, our analysis will hopefully provide some insights needed to make educated betting choices and fully enjoy this iconic event. The 2025 Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be an exciting race, with twenty contenders vying for the title. Everyone has an opinion on which horse will cross the finish line first at Churchill Downs on May 3. Journalism is the morning-line favorite, with odds at 7-2 up a bit from his opening of 3-1, but it’s important to consider that long shots like Flying Mohawk and Render Judgment might surprise us. It was just just three years ago when Rich Strike came from way back in the field to claim the title at 80-1! Let’s take a look at the field.
Citizen Bull holds morning line odds of 16-1 down from 20-1 and will start from post position 1. Owned by a large group, including SF Racing LLC and trained by Bob Baffert, Citizen Bull has had a remarkable career. With victories in the American Pharoah (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, this horse earned a championship for the 2-year-old division. However, his fourth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby exposes vulnerabilities. Considering no horse has won from post 1 since Ferdinand in 1986, Citizen Bull faces an uphill battle. Still, his past wins suggest he should not be underestimated come race day.
Neoequos, trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. and ridden by Flavien Prat, enters the Derby with 30-1 odds initially and moving all the way to 59-1 at time of writing. This Florida-bred horse is the offspring of Neolithic and made a notable third-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Owned by several parties, including C2 Racing Stable and Ian Parsard, Neoequos aims to be the seventh Florida-bred horse to win the Derby, a feat last achieved by Silver Charm in 1997. Despite the long odds, Neoequos has demonstrated potential and resilience. There is concern about the Derby being the upper level of Neoquos’s distance. The team hopes this tough competitor can overcome the odds and create a race-day surprise.
Final Gambit arrives at the Derby with odds dropping and now at 17-1 from opening at 30-1. His victory at the Jeff Ruby Steaks, rallying from last to first, shows he’s capable of a strong finish. Trained by Brad H. Cox and ridden by Luan Machado, this horse has built a reputation as a synthetic track specialist. Owned by Juddmonte, Final Gambit earned 100 qualification points for the Derby with that stellar performance. While his odds are long, his ability to rally late could surprise many. Final Gambit might find success by once again weaving his way to the front.
**SCRATCHED**
Rodriguez, trained by Bob Baffert and jockeyed by Mike Smith, has come down a bit to 9-1 odds for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. With a recent win at the Wood Memorial and promising Beyer Speed Figures, Rodriguez brings a competitive edge. He has also finished second and third in other key races, demonstrating consistency. Post position 4, historically challenging, adds to Rodriguez’s hurdles. However, with Baffert, a seasoned Derby trainer, and a solid performance record, Rodriguez might overcome his starting position’s difficulties. His strong front-end racing style could propel him to the front during the Derby’s intense competition.
Starting 30-1 odds, American Promise has dropped substantially to 11-1. American Promise stands out for his extensive racing background. With nine race visits, this Justify offspring holds the highest number of starts among the Derby horses. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, who boasts four Derby wins, American Promise won significantly in the Virginia Derby. With a wide array of experiences, this horse aims to utilize his versatility and endurance. Despite his odds, never underestimate his capacity to leverage experience. His trainer’s pedigree and proven prowess in tough races provide a strategic advantage. Having Justify as the sire certainly does not hurt his chances, nor does the favored 5th position.
Admire Daytona is a Japan-bred horse with impressive credentials. Making a mark with a win at the UAE Derby, this horse has shown resilience and talent. Trained by Yukihiro Kato, who is appearing in the Kentucky Derby for the first time, Admire Daytona opened with of 30-1 and has since had doubters raise his odds to 39-1. While this horse showed strength, fending off Heart of Honor, previous defeats by Luxor Cafe raises some questions. Admire Daytona’s ability to face top competitors will be crucial at Churchill Downs. If conditions align with his strengths, this horse might surprise the skeptics with a solid performance.
Luxor
Cafe sits at 15-1 for the Kentucky Derby. One of two horses with unchanged odds. Sired by American Pharoah, this horse has achieved notable success in Japan, winning four of his six career races. With victories in prestigious stakes races, including the Fukuryu Stakes, Luxor Cafe makes his debut outside Japan. His trainer, Noriyuki Horis, also debuts internationally, making this a momentous event. While prior Japanese horse performances in the Derby create skepticism, Luxor Cafe’s recent form suggests potential. His ability to adapt to the challenging Derby track and competitors will ultimately determine his success.
Journalism stands as the favorite with 7-2 odds. Emerging victoriously from the Santa Anita Derby, this horse has positioned itself as a formidable contender. Co-named by Aron Wellman, appreciation for responsible journalism inspired his name. His status as a leading contender is backed by performance and careful training. With a lineage and history pointing to racing success, Journalism is well-favored to seize the Derby crown. Those looking for a strong competitor should keep an eye on this standout horse, who holds exciting promise in this year’s race.
Burnham Square, listed at 12-1 odds initially has seen the odds jump to 22-1. Owned by Whitham Thoroughbreds and trained by Ian Wilkes, this horse shows signs of improvement with every race. Burnham Square shows consistent progress with an improving Beyer Speed Figure. Seeking to become the third gelding behind Funny Cide (2003) and Mine That Bird (2009), this horse’s Derby journey will be a test of adaptability and endurance.
**SCRATCHED**
Grande’s pedigree with Curlin as sire, Todd Pletcher as trainer, and being out of Repole Stable makes this now 17-1 shot a compelling story. Grande boasts both speed and stamina. His run distance ability may come into play here. Winning the miler by a couple lengths while finishing several lengths off the lead in the Wood Memorial (G2), the 1 ¼ Derby might push Grande’s limits.
Flying Mohawk, with odds favoring his underdog status. He enters the Derby without prior dirt race experience justifying the current odds up from 30-1 to 39-1. This horse, sired by Karakontie, has a moderate Beyer Speed Figure of 84, yet has shown competence on turf. Trained by D. Whitworth Beckman and jockeyed by Joseph D. Ramos, Flying Mohawk finished second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. His wins at Churchill and Fair Grounds suggest potential adaptability to new surfaces. Yet, the switch to dirt presents a gamble for this team. Success will depend on how well Flying Mohawk adjusts to the track and conditions on race day.
East Avenue approaches the Derby with odds now at 35-1 from 30-1. Trained by Brendan Walsh and jockeyed by Manuel Franco, this horse carries the lineage of Medaglia d’Oro. While showing early speed, East Avenue faltered to tenth in the Risen Star, yet regained form with a second-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes. His impressive past victory in the Breeders’ Futurity adds depth to his profile. East Avenue will need to harness its potential and strategize well to stand out in a crowded and competitive field.
Publisher, trained by Steve Asmussen, aims to defy the odds in the Derby at 31-1 up big from opening at 20-1. With no career wins, Publisher’s second-place finish in the Arkansas Derby hints at undiscovered potential. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will guide Publisher as he makes a historic attempt to be the first maiden to win the event since 1933. Despite being laid-back, Publisher’s career earnings of $407,756 indicate resilience. Critics might view him skeptically, but like any good underdog story, an upset could emerge from unexpected conditions on race day.
Coming off a Louisiana Derby victory, Tiztastic enters the 2025 Kentucky Derby with remarkable momentum. Trained by Steve Asmussen, who seeks his first Derby win despite numerous entries, Tiztastic boasts a pedigree with Tiz the Law. This lineage reflects both eligibility and promise for success. Ranked fifth in points, Tiztastic must address past challenges but has career earnings of $1,549,800. These figures underscore financial success and potential for triumph. Under Asmussen’s veteran guidance, a seasoned strategic approach may lead Tiztastic to achieve the desired victory. Tiztastic’s odds remain little changed at 19-1 down form 20-1 opening.
Render Judgment carries 12-1 odds into the Derby down substantially from an initial posting 30-1 , aiming to overturn challenges faced historically by post 15 starters. Trained by Ken McPeek and ridden by Sheldon Russell, this horse displays a modest racing record. With one win in seven starts and a somewhat lackluster Blue Grass Stakes performance, Render Judgment lacks strong momentum. Though heavily underdog, he remains a testament to racing’s unpredictability. His lineage from Blame showcases potential resilience. Should race circumstances align more favorably, Render Judgment might challenge expectations with a competitive run.
Coal Battle is another strong contender with losng odds at 30-1 being the second horse with no change from opening. This horse, versatile across various surfaces, raised eyebrows with wins in the Springboard Mile and Smarty Jones Stakes. His adaptability shines with victories on wet dirt tracks, offering an edge if the current forecast of intermittent rain on Saturday. Despite a third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, his consistent performances remain notable. With a talent for adjusting styles, trainer Chris Hartman believes Coal Battle is poised to outperform expectations. This horse could prove a dark horse in this heated race.
Sandman enters as a fan favorite with odds of 6-1 and a heritage of strong finishes. This beautiful animal stands out with the striking grey color, trained by Mark Casse, has delighted spectators with his late racetrack surges. While Sandman’s recent struggles at Churchill Downs are noted, his comeback in the Arkansas Derby illustrates his tenacity. Riding with Jose Ortiz, a strategic positioning early could allow Sandman to capitalize on pace dynamics. Sandman’s powerful rallying ability remains an asset for contending in this thrilling race’s competitive pace. Can Sandman finally win the Run for The Roses out of the 17th gate?
Sovereignty, opened 5-1 odds has jumped to a 12-1 shot. He stands out with notable wins and strong finishes. Trained by Bill Mott, this horse has demonstrated skillful late-stage rallies, evident in multiple dominant performances. Finishing second with a strong rally in the Florida Derby, Sovereignty displays strategic racing ability. Holding career earnings of $572,800 with consistent placements, he shows promise for victory. Mott and jockey Junior Alvarado are set to enhance this racing trajectory. Sovereignty’s record proves his capacity to contend against a formidable field.
Chunk of Gold strides into the Kentucky Derby with odds up to 40-1 from a 30-1 entry. Under trainer Ethan West, this horse secured second-place finishes in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby. His debut victory at Turfway Park underscores early promise. With career earnings of $348,818, Chunk of Gold is making strides. West hopes for his race debut to be marked by success and recognition. His adaptability within racing presentations might turn out favorable. If he harnesses potential well, defeating higher-odds competitors could indeed be feasible.
Owen Almighty, the longest shot of the race is currently at 44-1, seeks to capitalize on his proven track record. Though showing promise at Churchill Downs with a win and second-place finish, a sixth-place in the Blue Grass raises concerns. Sweetstown’s heritage boosts prospects despite doubling as a challenge factor. Trainer Brad Cox aims to leverage this potential into tangible results. Without his former jockey, adjustments are needed for optimal performance. Owen Almighty’s adaptability to distance is yet to be seen, illuminating this as a testing opportunity for the team.
Baeza, a noteworthy possible entrant, holds potential impact on Derby outcomes though not yet confirmed in the field. Ready under trainer John Shirreffs, racing discussions surround his prospects if given the chance. Only 20 participants can vie for the Kentucky crown, turning Baeza’s current status speculative. Should another contender’s exit allow entry, the stakes shift dynamically. Baeza adds intrigue and further debate to the proceedings. Racing fans await official word on his presence, fostering renewed betting gazes looking for surprises.
REPUTABLE BOOKS AND GREAT BONUSES
The 2025 Kentucky Derby is one of the most awaited horse racing events. The Derby features up to 20 horses, making the choice of post positions crucial. Historical data since 2013 shows that certain positions, like numbers 5 and 7, have higher win rates, at 16.7% and 18.2%, respectively. Understanding these statistics can help bettors make informed choices. Bettors analyze data like starts, wins, and top finishes from each gate to guide their bets. The specific post positions for this year’s race were announced ahead of time, shaping strategies for horse racing enthusiasts.
The 2025 Kentucky Derby promises an exciting showdown at Churchill Downs on May 3rd. This year’s field is packed with promising contenders, each eager to seize the coveted first place. With twenty horses set to line up, the odds on the competitors exhibit a wide range, making the betting scene as thrilling as the race itself. Among the contenders, Journalism stands out as the favorite. Luxor Cafe, at 15-1, is another notable entry, aiming to make history as the first Japanese horse to win the Derby. Sandman with eye catching beauty, speed, and stamina, but coming from the winless gate 17. Burnham Square strives to become the first gelding victor since 2009. Every participant’s post position could play a crucial role in the outcome, especially given the historical success associated with gates No. 5 and No. 20. The Run for the Roses continues to dazzle spectators and bettors alike, promising surprises at every turn. Despite its promising status, history shows that Derby favorites win only about 35% of the time.
Kentucky Derby Hopes and Dreams
The Kentucky Derby 2025 features a mix of seasoned pedigrees and emerging talents. American Pharoah, the famed Hall of Fame sire of Luxor Cafe and Publisher, has his progeny participating, though they are seen as longshots. Luxor Cafe’s odds of 15-1 bring hopes of a historical win for Japanese steeds. American Promise, sired by Justify, also competes, though with odds positioning it more as an underdog. Past upsets like Rich Strike’s 80-1 win in 2022 have proven that no favorite is safe. This year is no exception, with each horse gearing up to rewrite racing history.
